Showing posts with label energy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label energy. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 04, 2025

Podcast for Inquiry S03E11: Is nuclear energy low carbon, cost efficient, and sustainable? Jason Donev has the answers.

If uranium in a nuclear power plant emits so much radiation it boils tons of water, how safe is it for workers? Given the huge facilities required and massive mining efforts, is nuclear truly carbon neutral? Is there enough uranium in the earth for nuclear energy to be a long term source of electricity? If we build more nuclear plants, will we retire fossil fuel sources of electricity or simply increase our electricity usage accordingly? 

Jason Donev answers all these questions, and more, in our second conversation on nuclear energy. 


References from our conversation:


https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/what-is-the-budget-for-canadas-first-smr-project

https://energyeducation.ca/simulations/radiation_dose_calculator/index.html 

https://xkcd.com/radiation/ 


Prof. Jason Donev is tenured at the University of Calgary. He leads the world’s largest and most used energy resource for adults, EnergyEducation.ca. Prof. Donev works to help people understand nuclear power's role in providing reliable energy without emitting greenhouse gasses.

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A video recording is also available: 



Saturday, May 17, 2025

Podcast for Inquiry S04E10: New clear nuclear news, with Jason Donev

 Prof. Jason Donev is tenured at the University of Calgary. He leads the world’s largest and most used energy resource for adults, www.EnergyEducation.ca. As a reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Prof. Donev works to help people understand nuclear power's role in providing reliable energy without emitting greenhouse gases.

Jason talks about how much energy people around the world use, with a reminder that electricity is only a fraction of our overall energy budget. Jason describes nuclear energy’s advantages and disadvantages compared with the other major sources of electricity. We also discuss some concerns people have about nuclear energy, including its overall safety and storing its waste products.

Support Podcast for Inquiry on Patreon, subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts (Spotify Apple YouTube Music Deezer Player.fm), or listen here:  

A video recording is also available: 



Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Podcast for Inquiry S02E04: Allan Offenberger on Fusion Research: What We’ve Achieved, What Remains to be Solved

In December 2022, fusion research achieved a major accomplishment: more energy resulted from a controlled fusion reaction than was put into it. Allan explains why this is more a symbolic milestone than a sign that commercial fusion is imminent. Allan describes the current state of the art in fusion research, and the many ways fusion differs from fission, the existing nuclear energy technology. Fusion is moving from science to engineering, and many technical hurdles must be overcome before fusion, for all its promise, can make a significant practical difference in the world. 

For more information, visit the Fusion Energy Council of Canada, ITER, or the Fusion Industry Association

Subscribe to Podcast for Inquiry today wherever you listen to podcasts (Spotify iTunes Google Deezer Stitcher Player.fm) or listen here: 

A video recording is also available:



Wednesday, January 04, 2012

Organic farming: good practice or good marketing?

I remember reading a MAD Magazine cartoon when I was a child. A couple were deciding where to get fish and chips for lunch. The woman reads one option: "Fish and chips. $3.25." In the next panel, she reads the other possibility: "Specially selected prime fillet of halibut, lightly encrusted with homemade bread crumbs and deep fried to perfection in beer batter. $3.50." "What's the difference?" asks the man. "A lot of adjectives and twenty-five cents," is her reply.

I have long harboured a suspicion that foods labelled organic (especially in large supermarket chains) are little more than greenwashing - a way to get concerned wealthy customers to pay (much) more for meat and produce. At a minimum, coining the term "organic" to describe a particular method of farming is a brilliant marketing coup. It implies that any foods that do not follow its rules are inorganic. It's not just a North American phenomenon; in Germany, such foods are labelled "Bio" (with the convenient implication that other edibles are somehow non-biological).

But even if "organic" truly means a different farming technique, what are the benefits?

It is important to keep healthy eating habits distinct from the discussion about which method of food production is healthier. There is no question that snacking on celery or an orange is healthier than munching on potato chips or a chocolate bar. But are organic apples better for you than conventional apples? The answer is not at all clear to me.

Many proponents of organic produce claim that it is safer than conventional products. In 2008, 22 Canadians died from conventional meat products contaminated with listeria. But buying organic does not protect one from the rare case of deadly infectious agents in our food supply. In 2006, organic carrot juice was contaminated with botulism in Canada and the United States, and spinach contaminated with E. Coli was traced back to an organic food supplier in California.

I find the claim that organic meat is healthier than conventionally raised livestock to be plausible. It makes intuitive sense to me that a chicken, pig or cow eating its customary diet (e.g., cows grazing on grass instead of being fed grains) that is allowed free movement throughout its life (instead of being confined to the smallest possible cage from birth to slaughter) will be a healthier animal overall and that this would be reflected in some way in its nutritional value when eaten by humans.

Somewhat to my surprise, the best scientific analysis I could find on this question, conducted by the UK Food Standards Agency in July 2009, states, "There is currently no independent authoritative statement on differences in the putative health effects of organic and conventional produced foodstuffs." Furthermore, there appears to be no discernible difference in  nutritional content: "There is currently no independent authoritative statement on the nature and importance of differences in content of nutrients and other nutritionally relevant substances (nutrients and other substances) in organically and conventionally produced foodstuffs." However, the authors clearly state that their conclusion is based on the best available reliable data, which is, at present, scarce. The study did not include external factors in its analysis, such as comparative environmental impacts or the potential effects of residual pesticides (herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides) on conventionally grown foods.

For the moment, I am neutral on the effect of pesticides on human health. I assume that, overall, any risks of eating small quantities of residual pesticides on properly rinsed fruits and vegetables are roughly balanced by the benefit of not ingesting potentially harmful insect parts and fungal spores.

For me, the broader impacts food production are more compelling to consider. Our animal husbandry practices are almost perfectly designed to generate, sooner or later, an infectious agent unaffected by all available antibiotics. A September 2011 joint letter from the American Medical Association, American Academy of Pediatrics, American Public Health Association, Infectious Diseases Society of America, and others indicates that as far back as 1970 the Food and Drug Administration warned "that antibiotic use in food‐producing animals, especially in subtherapeutic amounts, was associated with the development of drug‐resistant bacteria". Yet today, "FDA data showed that 80 percent of antibacterial drugs were sold for use in food animals in the United States". Is the very real possibility of an untreatable pathogen evolving from our farming policies worth cheaper meat?

Similarly, are higher crop yields today worth a potentially disastrous infestation of pesticide resistant insects? This isn't merely a low-probability, distant, abstract risk. It's happening today: "Rootworms in four northeast Iowa fields have evolved to resist the natural pesticide made by Monsanto's [genetically modified] corn plant." Combine this fact with our increasing tendency to plant vast monocultures (when was the last time you saw any corn at your supermarket other than peaches and cream?), and we have created an environment in which it is only a matter of time before a locust (or weed or fungus) that specializes in devouring one of our favourite foods will evolve to be unaffected by any of the techniques in widespread use intended to curb their impact.

One of the recurring themes during my business studies was that the single most important business concept is economies of scale. It is the fundamental source of competitive advantage for any major enterprise. But something I read on a friend's blog last year disputes this precept and I have found it compelling: for many industries (including farming), cost advantage comes not from economies of scale, but by maximizing economies of externalities: "We have made efficiency our highest priority, and have allowed it to trump kindness, adequate nutrition, meaningful work, clean air and water, peace, and beauty. It is the foundation of our system, and it leads logically to exactly the crises we are in. We do not have economies of scale; we passed those long ago, probably around the time that our fields became so big that the bees couldn’t fly to the middle of them. What we have instead are economies of externalization. Things are not affordable (for us) because they are cheap to produce in such massive quantities. They are affordable because somebody else is picking up the tab. Whether it is the farmer who takes all the risk and barely squeaks out a profit from 500 dairy cows, or the dead zone off the coast from the river runoff, and the fishers who can no longer fish there, the urban peasant who moved to a slum for a better life because their land was sold off to grow cash crops, or the species of orchid that went extinct when that towering giant in the rainforest was cut: the costs are there. We just aren’t paying them."

This is the tragedy of the commons writ large. Much of the the cost savings (narrowly defined as what customers pay for meat and produce at the till) in food production in recent decades come from becoming more and more effective at externalizing the effects our farming practices. As 16th century Swiss scientist Paracelsus noted, "The dose makes the poison." Excrement in low quantities is fertilizer. Runoff from farms (loose topsoil, excess pesticides, unabsorbed fertilizer, animal excrement) at the scale of our industrial agriculture leads to massive contamination of land and water ecosystems. Farms (along with heavy industry) are responsible for huge waterways such as China's Yellow River becoming unsuitable for any human use - drinking, bathing, fishing, or watering crops.

It's not just polluted water - there are a number of other problems that make our current practices unsustainable. While focusing on biomass (plant or animal) yields per hectare, we have tacitly ignored the fact that we are degrading our environmental capital:
  • Groundwater reserves are being depleted much faster than they are naturally replenished (leading to ever-deeper wells being bored);
  • The amount of energy and water required for each unit of farmed biomass has increased (through increased and often overuse of fertilizers and irrigation systems);
  • Topsoil is being eroded (in Iowa, there is only half of the topsoil that existed 100 years ago, leading to "serious problems for farming, surface water, plant and animal life, and residents");
  • Rivers, seas, and ever-increasing areas of our oceans are proving uninhabitable to most marine life (the Gulf of Mexico has a dead zone of over 6,000 square miles, primarily as a result of "runoff of fertilizers, soil erosion, animal wastes, and sewage");
  • Massive centralization of food production has led to enormous transportation costs (both financial and environmental) being built into our global food production systems. In addition to the above problems, linking our food and transportation industries so intimately inherently makes food prices more volatile. Every gyration in the price of oil due to political events in the Middle East are reflected in spiking and crashing market rates for staple foods. 
This is a complex problem. I am not sure that the methods of "organic" horticulture are able to feed a hungry planet of seven billion (and growing) people. But continuing on our current path invites multiple disasters: antibiotic resistant pathogens; pesticide resistant insects, weeds, or fungi; depleted groundwater reserves; topsoil erosion; polluted land and waterways; massive dead zones in river deltas and oceans; and likely others.

Farmland is finite, so good yields are essential. Promoting policies that will substantially increase the cost of staples will result in large numbers of the world's poor going hungry. We must find a way to feed today's population without compromising our ability do so in a few decades.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

How should we meet baseline energy demand?


For over two decades, I have held the firm conviction that the best way to meet baseline energy demand - the amount of electricity that is always needed, before any spikes (such as during a particularly hot summer day) - is with nuclear energy. Other means of generating electricity can be used to meet additional energy needs - perhaps a combination of natural gas (because it's relativity easy to increase or decrease the energy generated to meet demand) and solar (because the biggest spikes in energy demand tend to be during those times when the sun is shining). But the base load? The answer is clearly nuclear.

I have heard many arguments against nuclear energy, and found none of them compelling. 
  • Nuclear energy is the same as / supplies the raw materials for / implies support for nuclear weapons. This is simply false. Canada's CANDU reactors use natural uranium. US, French, and Japanese reactors require uranium to be enriched to approximately 3% of a more fissile isotope. Uranium needs to be enriched to contain over 90% for a nuclear bomb. And though there are small amounts of other elements (such as plutonium) in the waste products of some nuclear plants, there are (unfortunately) several easier methods of getting hold of weapons-grade nuclear materials. No one intent on building a bomb will bother dumpster diving outside a nuclear plant. One can both favour nuclear energy and strongly advocate against nuclear weapons.
  • Three Mile Island demonstrated the inherent dangers of nuclear energy. I have always found this argument curious. Yes, something went wrong at the Three Mile Island plant and the operators there made mistakes that compounded the problem. But the automatic safety systems kicked in exactly as they should have. The containment structure was never breached (and was only filled with hydrogen, which could have made a loud noise if ignited but little else). No radiation was ever released to the public. You could have been standing right outside the plant at the time and nothing would have happened to you. It was a black eye for the industry from a public relations perspective, but nothing transpired that ever threatened the health of a single human being. 
  • Chernobyl proved that the fallout from a meltdown far outweigh any potential benefits. I agree that Chernobyl was a disaster, and only the heroic efforts of the Ukrainian, Russian, and international engineers that erected an improvised containment building prevented it from being much worse. Chernobyl clearly showed that the Soviet design principles of the RBMK reactor were fatally flawed. RBMK reactors have a combustible graphite core.When there was insufficient water in the core to cool the graphite, it got hotter and hotter until there was an explosion and full meltdown. In western designs, the coolant also serves as a catalyst - if all the coolant instantly disappeared, the reaction could not continue. I am certainly in favour of shutting down all existing RBMK reactors (none with this design will be built again). Without minimizing the scale of the Chernobyl disaster and its aftermath, I find it to be a credible argument against the RBMK design, not nuclear energy in general.
  • Uranium mines despoil natural habitats and pollute water sources. Strictly speaking, this is accurate. As with all mining activities, some mines / companies do better than others, but most or all have nontrivial environmental effects, and uranium mines are no exception. But consider the environmental impact of coal mines, natural gas extraction (especially the increasing use of the technique known as hydraulic fracturing (fracking), which injects "hundreds of millions of gallons of hazardous or carcinogenic chemicals" into the water table), hydroelectric dams (with the massive tracts of land that are flooded), or oil (especially Canada's Albertan tar sands). In any fair comparison, uranium mines are not pristine but come out looking pretty good - if for no other reason than much less uranium needs to be extracted from the earth to keep a 1,000 MW nuclear reactor running than coal or gas for the same power output.
  • Nuclear waste is dangerous for [tens or hundreds of] thousands of years, and we have no way of safely storing or managing anything over these timescales. The byproducts of nuclear energy, when compared to other sources of generating electricity, are one of the strongest arguments in its favour. Yes, there is some toxic stuff, but most of it is dangerous only if ingested or inhaled. The material that is very hazardous also doesn't last long. Look at it this way - the more radioactive a substance is, the more harmful it is to humans, but also the faster it decays into something else. The stuff that lasts for a long time isn't very radioactive and isn't nearly as hazardous to human health. There is so little waste from a nuclear plant that it's relatively easy to manage. With coal, there are enormous quantities of ash. This is a real waste problem. For example, in December 2008 a retaining wall failed in Tennessee and over 1 billion gallons of coal fly ash (contaminated with extremely toxic heavy metals such as lead and thallium - just watch the scale of it in this video) escaped into tributaries of the Tennessee River. This stuff isn't harmful for hundreds of thousands or millions of years - it's poisonous forever.
  • Nuclear energy is more expensive than hydro, coal, oil, or gas. This is generally true historically, though the large price fluctuations in recent years for oil and gas leaves it open to question whether this will continue to be the case. But overall, the economic case against nuclear energy is cogent and accurate. There are two things to consider about the cost of nuclear energy: it produces energy under far more stringent conditions than any other energy source (coal plants emit 100 times more radiation into the environment than nuclear stations), which naturally drives up costs; and perhaps it is worthwhile to pay more for an energy source that, when compared to any other, is essentially non-polluting (especially since we are cooking the planet with our carbon dioxide emissions).
Thus, for many years I have been quite comfortable holding the opinion that nuclear energy was the best way to meet our baseline energy needs.

All that started to change in March 2011, with the earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan. Over the past several months I have had to reevaluate an opinion I have staunchly held for many years.

The Fukushima plant was constructed to withstand an earthquake up to 7.9 on the Richter scale. The quake in March was 9.0, or over ten times the maximum design threshold. The seawall was 5.7 metres high, far less than the 14 metre height of the tsunami that followed. Though the severity of these events was surprising, the result (given how far they exceeded the design thresholds) at Fukushima was not: there was major damage to the plant, which resulted in a meltdown.

Unlike Three Mile Island, this was a serious event (according to an October 2011 paper in Nature, the radiation emitted from Fukushima is now half that of Chernobyl). And unlike Chernobyl, Japanese plant designs are just as rigorously safety oriented as their western European and North American counterparts. Japanese nuclear physicists, engineers, scientists and construction workers are world-class. In other words, if a meltdown can happen in Japan, it can happen anywhere.

What happens in Canada or the US when an earthquake, flood, or hurricane of unprecedented magnitude strikes in an area with a nuclear plant?

In 2010, a nuclear plant in Nebraska failed a safety inspection due to insufficient flood defenses. In response, the operator improved them to be effective for a high water level of 1,010 feet. In June 2011, an unprecedented flood peaked at 1,008 feet. Though the surrounding terrain was flooded, there was no damage to the plant. But it could have turned out quite differently with a single additional heavy rainstorm.

If this year's floods had occurred even months earlier, the plant itself would have been at least partially under water. The mandated improvements to the facility's flood preparedness enabled it to make it through June 2011 undamaged.

It's a happy ending, but illustrates a key requirement for nuclear safety: the existence of a strong, truly independent regulator to enforce the rules. Otherwise, safety inevitably gets compromised. Not operational safety, necessarily; but it requires a firm enforcement agency to get a power company to build (as in the Nebraska example) expensive flood barriers in areas not prone to them. Or to ensure numerous secondary and tertiary independent backup systems are continually checked and monitored so that they will perform as expected should primary systems suddenly fail for any reason.

The U.S. federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission behaved commendably in Nebraska in 2010. Its action likely prevented significant damage to a major power generating facility. But I am unconvinced that enforcing objective rules independent of industry influence is typical of this US regulatory body, especially after reading this four part series by the Associated Press. 

The situation is no better in Canada. In November 2007, Linda Keen, the president of Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission followed the law and refused to allow the Chalk River nuclear plant to restart after a planned shutdown until two coolant pumps were connected to backup power systems that could withstand a major earthquake. In December, the Canadian Parliament overruled this decision and ordered the facility to restart operations. In January 2008, Ms. Keen was fired.

(In May 2009, the reactor had be shut down again due to safety concerns. It did not re-open until July 2010.)

If Canadian nuclear plants consistently pass safety inspections and their operating permits are regularly renewed, is this due to the industry taking safety seriously and meeting or exceeding all guidelines? Possibly. Or perhaps no inspector, remembering Ms. Keen, wants to lose his or her job. Her dismissal was not an erosion of the traditional independence of the nuclear regulator - this act destroyed it with one brazen decision.

Beyond these examples, and many allegations of a cozy relationship between TEPCO (which operated the plants at Fukushima) and JNISA (the Japanese national nuclear safety regulator), I have one more reason to doubt the long-term independence of any nuclear regulator.

Money.

Nuclear energy is not just about scientific research, defense in depth engineering design, and precision construction. It is a business. With tens of billions of dollars at stake, considerable time, expertise, and expense will be dedicated to regulatory capture. We've seen this happen in numerous other industries, such as telecommunications and finance. Regulatory bodies have occasionally provided the mandated oversight of their assigned industry but more often have lobbied on their behalf. Nothing I have seen makes me think that nuclear regulatory bodies are immune to the pressures and corrupting influences that their peers have succumbed to, time and again, all around the world.

If I have my doubts about nuclear energy, how do we meet our current and future demands for energy? I don't like any of the major alternatives. 
  • Coal is cheap and plentiful. It is also highly polluting, with emissions of high amounts of particulate matter (leading to smog and respiratory ailments), sulphur (leading to acid rain), and carbon dioxide. Coal mining is literally changing the landscape in many areas, as entire mountains are flattened for the coal they contain. The scale of some coal mining operations is staggering. 
  • Natural gas is cleaner than coal, though it too generates a lot of carbon dioxide emissions. There is an increasing environmental cost of extracting gas from remote or hostile areas from beds with ever lower concentrations. Also, there are serious allegations that fracking has led to an increase in the number and severity of earthquakes in Oklahoma and England.
  • Oil has numerous issues associated with it: implicit support for regimes with horrendous humans rights records (Saudi Arabia and Iran spring to mind immediately); accepting the enormous environmental costs associated with oil extraction (think of any number of breached tankers, Canada's tar sands, or the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010); or ignoring the simple fact that there is a finite amount of oil in the ground, and we should be planning to meet our ongoing energy needs with a source that is not at risk of being depleted in our lifetime.
  • Hydro: My understanding is that most of the attractive sites in North America have already been exploited for their hydro potential. There may be a few good locations remaining, but I question whether we should place much effort in developing the marginal sites given the fiscal and environmental costs of damming and flooding large, fast-moving waters.
  • Renewable sources: I think investment to obtain greater efficiencies from solar, wind, geothermal, and tidal sources is worthwhile. Every bit helps, and placing a greater emphasis on reducing demand from large central electricity generating plants by meeting needs locally is a good idea. But each of these also require nontrivial amounts of water, concrete, steel, and rare earth metals if they are to produce a meaningful contribution to our energy supply. Putting these issues aside, and even granting significantly higher energy conversion rates and much lower costs of production, renewables can only contribute a small percentage of our energy demand - perhaps enough to build one less large coal, gas, or nuclear plant (which typically produce 800-1000 MW). This is fine as far as it goes, but the overall question remains.
It is clear to me that a multi-pronged approach is called for. We should make a serious effort to decrease the growth of our energy consumption needs (install high efficiency furnaces in new or renovated homes, replace expired incandescent bulbs with equivalent CFL or LEDs, turn up the thermostat in the summer and down in the winter, etc.). We should reduce energy waste (such as with high efficiency power lines and better insulation - especially in large, older buildings). But according to a column in Nature, even if we could replace all "cars, appliances, boilers, buildings and power plants with today's state-of-the art technology, replace and expand current electricity generation with non-emitting sources and produce as much biofuel as possible by 2050," California's greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced by 60% from 1990 levels, well below its stated target of 80%.

We (as a country, and as a species) will only need more and more energy. If the trend to hybrid / electric cars continues it will reduce smog, but also increase electricity demand substanitally. We cannot have heated homes, personal computers, and other conveniences of our modern existence without an energy-intensive infrastructure, nor can we alter this dependency without a significant impairment to our quality of life. Do we sacrifice some of our creature comforts? If so, which ones? Do we take steps to limit the global population? If so, how would we accomplish this is an ethical and humane manner?

On this topic, I no longer have a strong opinion - only many questions. So I turn to you: how should we meet baseline energy demand?